Israel Is Stretched Thin and Hezbollah Knows It

NAHARIYA, Israel - The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah continues to escalate what so far have been small-scale attacks against Israeli positions along the hotly contested border, signalling its willingness to confront Israel in a significant way for the first time since 2006, according to regional diplomats, Lebanese security officials, and Israeli military spokespeople. 

That comes as Israel prepares its awaited ground operation into Gaza in response to the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israeli towns, settlements, and military bases that killed about 1300 Israelis and led to at least 220 hostages.  Security officials and politicians across the region, Europe, and the U.S. are deeply concerned that Hezbollah and other well-trained and equipped groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen–largely backed by Iran and Syria– might militarily enter the fray on behalf of Hamas..  

“We have seen some very alarming attacks by Iranian proxies with rockets and missiles fired by Lebanon-based Palestinian militant groups, Hezbollah, and other Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen,” said a senior U.S. diplomat, who spoke anonymously because of the complex diplomatic effort underway. 

On Sunday, Hezbollah escalated its activities on the border, firing at least three guided anti-tank missiles at key IDF positions and drawing return fire, leading IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus to warn that continued escalation and attacks could lead to a broader conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a visit Sunday to IDF troops in the north, threatened the group with the total destruction of much of Lebanon.

In response to the near daily clashes, Israel announced it would expand an evacuation zone along the border from two kilometres to five. Government officials estimate about 100,000 Israelis have been forced out of their homes, with another estimated 100,000 voluntarily leaving for areas further from the northern border. 

At least 24 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in fighting along the border since Oct. 7, and on Friday a dual citizen Israel-American serving as an IDF reservist was killed in a missile strike on a military base on the border. Israel  responded with artillery and tank fire, as well as conducting air strikes on Hezbollah’s key ally Syria, targeting airports in Damascus and Aleppo.

“But these (initial) attacks have been nothing compared to what Hezbollah is capable of doing should they take a decision to fully enter the war,” the U.S. official said. “Hezbollah so far has limited itself to harassment and brief attacks on IDF positions along the [UN-established] Blue Line but are also using strategic ambiguity to leave Israel, the U.S., and other regional allies on edge because it’s unclear if they’ll truly enter the fight once the ground offensive [in Gaza] begins.”

On Monday, the IDF said that several drones launched from Lebanese territory had been intercepted. 

Hezbollah’s military capability is significant. The Iranian-backed group, established in South Lebanon in the wake of Israel’s disastrous 1982 invasion of Lebanon, began as a secretive military group that harassed the Israelis into abandoning their 22-year occupation of South Lebanon in 2000 and in 2006 fought the IDF to a stalemate in a 33-day war that began after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, who died in captivity. The widespread destruction in Lebanon – about 1200 Lebanese were killed along with 120 Israelis–and Hezbollah’s ability to maintain a steady stream of rocket and missile fire into Israel for over a month despite a massive IDF air campaign led to an uneasy truce that mostly held until Oct. 7.

Since 2006, Hezbollah’s capabilities have increased exponentially as the group expanded from a small, elite organisation in the low thousands into a proper military fighting force that fought by the tens of thousands to support the Syrian President Bashar al Assad over the last decade. The group now fields more than 150,000 rockets and missiles ranging from short-range unguided rockets to larger sophisticated missile systems that by all accounts can target Israel in its entirety.

By comparison, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad rocket programs in Gaza rarely fire more than a few dozen rockets a day–their largest operation was about 3,000 rockets fired at the start of the Oct. 7 attack, only to greatly dwindle over the last two weeks–mostly limited to targets surrounding the enclave and occasionally Tel Aviv.

But Hezbollah’s huge arsenal, highly trained fighters, and deeply fortified and well-hidden launch sites scattered over an area many times larger than Gaza could easily send thousands of rockets and missiles a day into Israel for months, forcing Israelis to live in shelters throughout the country and bring its economy to a standstill. 

“Stopping the rockets and missiles would require a large ground incursion by the IDF that would take months to show significant progress and involve occupying large parts of Lebanon,” said an IDF official on background. “We learned in [2006] that air strikes will neither stop the rockets or deter Hezbollah from firing them.”

A Hezbollah commander, who uses the nom-de guerre Abu Jawaad, agreed with that assessment and repeated that the group’s long-term military strategy of attempting to inflict more military, economic, and social pain on Israel via incessant rocket and missile fire had been validated by past operations. 

“The… enemy cannot live in shelters, seeing their homes and businesses destroyed, for as long as [Hezbollah] and the people of South Lebanon can withstand their attacks,” he said by messenger from Beirut. “We have been living under Israeli attack since 1948, they are not willing to pay the price that we can now inflict. We will pay any price, they enjoy their soft lives too much.”

Abu Jawaad refused to comment on the possibility of Hezbollah’s further entrance into the Gaza conflict, citing instructions from Hezbollah commanders and the group’s unwillingness to help its enemy make decisions. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has long and effectively refused to telegraph the group’s intentions.

“Nasrallah knew about the Gaza operation, of course he did,” said a Lebanese security official, who refused to be named for fear of the group. “Nasrallah knows the Israelis are terrified of what Hezbollah can do at a time when they want to focus on Hamas and Gaza.”

Israeli officials have concluded that the impending operation in Gaza could take at least months and require a massive military presence–more than 360,000 reservists have already been mobilised, the most since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. And with Palestinian anger on the Israeli-occupied West Bank at its highest level in over 20 years that has led to repeated bouts of violence killing dozens of demonstrators, the IDF is already stretched thin, according to both IDF and U.S. officials.

“We face one-and-half fronts right now, this is part of why the Hamas terrorist operation was so successful on Black Sabbath,” said the IDF official, using the name commonly used in Israel to describe the events of Oct 7. “Soldiers that were supposed to be outside Gaza were in the West Bank protecting settlements and chasing rock-throwing kids in Jenin. Yes, we are mobilised but even with the reservists, there’s going to be a massive, long term operation in Gaza that will require more ground troops than we have ever deployed. The West Bank could explode at any time [into a major uprising] and the units on the northern border are enough for defensive operations. Three fronts in open combat would stretch our resources.”

“But that might be what Nasrallah has planned for us,” they added. “The threat alone will keep multiple brigades of elite soldiers on the Blue Line (the withdrawal line between Israel and Lebanon), unable to help in Gaza or the West Bank. We will not know his true intentions before the start of the Gaza ground manoeuvre.”

Beyond the considerable local threat posed by Iran’s proxies, U.S. officials remain deeply concerned about any further escalation’s regional effect, as Iran has warned that it could become further involved directly or through its allies in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Last week, a U.S. Navy destroyer intercepted at least three missiles and several drones over the Red Sea that were fired from Yemen at Israel.

“[Secretary of State Anthony] Blinken and Biden had to stop the Israelis from a pre-emptive strike against Lebanon in the days after Oct 7,” the U.S. official said, confirming multiple media reports.

“[Israeli Defense Minister Yoav] Gallant was insisting the attack was as much Hezbollah as it was Hamas and that the real battle should be in the north. [Netanyahu] was indecisive but was considering approving the operation. Biden had to offer a blank check of military aid, political support, and two aircraft carrier groups off the coast of Lebanon, not to threaten Iran or Nasrallah as much as to reassure Israel.”

Such a move by Israel could have easily sent the conflict regional, said the U.S. official. 

“The Israelis do not seem inclined to take any advice on using restraint in Gaza, but an attack on Lebanon would probably have led to a full scale regional war that could have dragged in the US and regional allies. That would have been the way this horrible situation could have been worse and now we have to wait to see if Nasrallah decides to start it himself. At this point it’s clear they have the strategic initiative, Israel is stuck reacting to the attack from Gaza, the situation on the West Bank and whatever Hezbollah and Iran decide to do next.”